Blissful Thanksgiving, everybody.
Earlier than I get into my props, there have been two Thanksgiving specials that stood out to me on DraftKings that I need to cowl.
Josh Allen is +240 to document probably the most passing yards at Thanksgiving, and Gabe Davis is +1,300 to steer the record in receiving yards.
I undertaking Davis nearer to +900 to prime the receiving charts on Turkey Day. He has a wider vary of outcomes than most gamers, so that you would possibly say it must be decrease.
Davis would not want the quantity of different receivers to win this wager given his capacity to play huge. There is a situation the place he leads the slate with one thing like 125 receiving yards going into the final recreation of the evening. If that’s the case, you may hedge your wager by betting on Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards. If Jefferson goes below his complete of 88.5, it is unlikely anybody else will go over 125. If he passes between 89 and 124 receiving yards, you will win each bets.
The wager on Allen goes hand in hand with Davis. I’d say a good worth on Allen is nearer to +200.
That mentioned, listed below are my favourite equipment for all three Thanksgiving video games.
Singletary is coming off a season-high 18 speeding makes an attempt final week towards the Browns. It was solely the third time he had eradicated that complete in 10 video games.
In opposition to Cleveland, Singletary benefited from Josh Allen recording season lows in passing (197) and speeding (seven) yards. I believe we’ll see him bounce again with a large enough recreation within the air and on the bottom that he is chipping away at Singletary’s workload.
Plus, we noticed second-round rookie James Cook dinner document his finest recreation of the season, with 11 carries for 86 speeding yards. Singletary dominates the cross and 2-minute work, however the Payments might proceed to make use of Cook dinner on early downs to maintain the veteran contemporary.
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One other factor that works towards Singletary on this market is that he would not get many makes an attempt on third or fourth and runs. The Payments have a rock-solid quarterback the place they line up Gabe Davis behind Allen, pushing the QB ahead.
There are additionally sneaky guardrails on this prop. If the Lions are capable of preserve him shut, it’s going to pressure the Payments to undertake a pass-heavy play script.
If the Payments get an enormous lead, they have an inclination to wrap Singletary and let Cook dinner dominate the work. Buffalo can also need to lastly get Nyheim Hines reps on offense. Any rush makes an attempt it will get will solely assist this prop.
I am projecting Singletary for over 12.5 speeding makes an attempt and I would wager that will go right down to -140.
I am unable to consider a greater strategy to spend Thanksgiving than sweating a Lawrence Cager prop throughout time for supper (on the East Coast).
I believe this prop affords sneaky worth, because the Giants will doubtless be compelled right into a pass-heavy script as 10-point underdogs.
Daniel Jones has simply misplaced his major goal, Wan’Dale Robinson, for the remainder of the season. That makes Darius Slayton the brand new go-to receiver, though it is unclear who will emerge because the No. 2 possibility.
Cager will proceed because the Giants tight finish till rookie Daniel Bellinger returns. Cager ran 70% of Jones’ dropbacks final week, and I anticipate to see related utilization with Robinson out.
The Cowboys have generated probably the most stress within the NFL this season. Jones has focused his tight finish 14% of the time in a clear pocket, however that rises to 19% when going through stress.
Cager is a former huge receiver who transformed to a decent finish. He’s 6 ft 5 inches tall and weighs 220 kilos. He isn’t there to dam. Additionally, for what it is price, he had the second-most receiving yards amongst tight ends within the preseason.
I am projecting Cager for nearer to 19.5 receiving yards right here and I like his over benefit.
Cousins has struggled below stress this season. His yards per try go from 7.1 with a clear pocket to five.4 when below stress. With that, it was no shock that Cousins actually struggled towards the Cowboys since Dallas leads the league in stress ratio.
Cousins faces one other robust take a look at towards a Patriots protection that ranks second in stress ratio. To make issues worse, left deal with Christian Darrisaw has already been dominated out.
Because of this, I anticipate Minnesota to have a extra conservative, heavyweight recreation plan towards New England.
The Patriots offense might additionally wrestle to attain factors, lowering the probabilities of the Cousins getting into a recreation situation that sees the Vikings go heavy and play from behind.
I am projecting that nearer to 238.5 passing yards.
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