It is the week of thanks, and the 89% of NFL Survivor Pool entries that got here out of Week 11 have a lot to be glad about. There shall be a number of large spreads over the following few days and so they will not be restricted to the dinner desk. 5 groups on this week’s checklist are favored by two scores.
Earlier than we dive into the Week 12 plate, let’s consider the Week 11 leftovers:
Week 11 Picks
Finest bets: 2-0 (YTD: 11-10)
Lean: 1-0 (YTD: 12-3)
Traps to keep away from: 1 elimination prevented (YTD: 13)
Let’s transfer on to the alternatives of week 12!
All BetMGM Strains.
Many analysts predicted that Los Angeles would expertise the notorious “Tremendous Bowl hangover” this season, however I do not assume anybody anticipated them to be 3-7 at this level. Even earlier than the accidents began piling up, they had been a foul staff with an irremediable offense.
The protection wasn’t significantly better, producing strain like a damaged showerhead. Solely the Falcons have a decrease QB strain share than the Rams (14.1%). They’re higher in opposition to the run, which will not assist a lot in opposition to a passing-laden Kansas Metropolis staff that gained 25 straight video games in November and December.
The Chiefs’ offense leads the league in factors per apply, whereas Patrick Mahomes appears to be like like a lock for MVP. Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford will miss this recreation with a concussion, leaving Bryce Perkins in line for the beginning behind a decimated offensive line that allowed the third-most sacks. The Rams have misplaced six of their final seven video games and enter this contest with 4 straight losses. They will not break that streak on Sunday.
Kansas Metropolis is the fifth hottest decide this week, at 3.52%. Their future worth lies in a Week 15 recreation in Houston.
New York suffered a yr of accidents in final week’s loss to the Lions, leaving them with out their high two cornerbacks, nearly all of their offensive line and their rising rookie receiver. Dallas leads the NFL in sacks per recreation (4.2) by a wholesome margin and can spend its Thanksgiving feasting on Daniel Jones.
The Giants protection ranks twenty seventh in DVOA and twenty sixth in speeding EPA, whereas Cowboys working again Tony Pollard cuts by means of opponents like Uma Thurman in Kill Invoice. Over his final 4 video games, Pollard is averaging 143.3 speeding and receiving yards.
Dallas took care of enterprise when these two met earlier this yr, firing Jones 5 occasions. The Cowboys are taking part in too effectively and New York is simply too shorthanded to make a recreation of it this time round.
Mike McCarthy’s staff is the sixth hottest decide this week at 3.34%. Just like the Chiefs, their greatest future worth comes in opposition to the Texans (Week 14).
The road on this recreation jumped 1.5 factors on information of Zach Wilson’s bench. New York is within the hunt for the playoffs and Robert Saleh understands that Wilson was holding the staff again, each on and off the court docket. Saleh’s protection has been excellent this yr, permitting fifth-fewest factors per apply. The defensive position dominates the trenches and the cornerbacks lock in like March 2020. All QB Mike White has to do just isn’t be utterly horrible in opposition to a Chicago protection that’s second worst within the EPA by Sport.
It is nonetheless unclear if Justin Fields is the Bears’ QB on Sunday, after separate and partially tear the ligaments of his shoulder final week in opposition to the Falcons. It would not be the neatest transfer for a 3-8 staff with just about no probability of creating the playoffs to throw him there, contemplating he is probably the most sacked QB within the NFL this yr, and the Jets rank fourth in QB speeding share (24.9%) and sacks per recreation (3.2).
Just below 2% of attendees experience with the Jets this week, making them the eighth hottest staff. They’ve little or no future worth.
TRAPS TO AVOID
Miami ought to blow the doorways off the Texans, however the NFL is bizarre and also you by no means need to take a surviving staff that is 65% owned just like the Dolphins are this week. There are many different large favorites, all of that are beneath 12% possession.
After lacking apply final week on account of sickness, Lamar Jackson is now sidelined with hip injury. He’ll in all probability play, however I do not assist him as a short-range favourite in opposition to a Jags staff popping out of their bye.
Baltimore is the seventh hottest alternative, at 2.1%.
Kirk Cousins in prime time, in opposition to a New England protection that ranks first in defensive DVOA? I don’t prefer it.
Vikings is the ninth hottest recreation this week, at 1.8%.
Stats supplied by Professional Soccer Reference, teamrankings.com, Soccer Outsiders, StatMuse and rbsdm.com (restoration time eliminated).
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